Fishing Report Archives
Report Filed: January 30, 2009
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Posted on Friday, December 12, 2008 (PST)
The Columbia/Snake river basin's waterways should be brimming with fish next year if preseason forecasts of salmon returns come true.
The U.S. v Oregon Technical Advisory Committee on Wednesday announced its prediction that 298,900 adult upriver spring chinook would return to the mouth of the Columbia River in 2009. TAC's membership includes federal, state and tribal fishery officials.
If accurate, the run would be the third largest since at least the 1970s. Only the 2001 and 2002 actual returns were larger with 437,910 and 331,303 adults, respectively. The 2001 count is the highest on a record dating back to 1938.
The 2008 forecast was for a return of 269,300 upriver spring chinook, but the actual return was 178,800 (66 percent of forecast). The upriver spring chinook are stocks headed for hatcheries and tributary spawning grounds above the Columbia's Bonneville dam.
The total 2009 Columbia River fall chinook return should also better the 2008 run, according to an "outlook" released Monday by the Oregon and Washington fish and wildlife departments.
TAC is expected to produce 2009 spring chinook forecasts for lower Columbia tributaries -- the Cowlitz, Kalama, Lewis, Sandy, and Willamette rivers – by early next week. The committee will also in the coming weeks add detail to spring chinook forecasts with predictions for individual stocks such as the Snake River and Upper Columbia components. Sockeye and summer chinook forecasts will also be produced.
The ODFW-WDFW fall chinook outlook for 2009 represents an early, cursory estimate of the run's potential based in large part on "jack" counts last year at Bonneville and other mainstem dams. Jacks are young fish that return to the river after less than two years in the ocean. They are considered a signal of the strength of future year's runs when their broodmates return as 3, 4, 5, 6 and even 7-year-olds.
Last year the Columbia basin fall chinook run totaled more than 400,000 fish, which was double the 2007 return.
The "2009 return may be close to one-half million fall chinook," according to the outlook.
Its strength is expected to be the Upriver Bright stock. The 2008 URB run was similar to the 10-year average of 233,000, according to a preliminary assessment. The jack count was also average. The URBs originate in the Mid-Columbia's Hanford Reach, the Snake, Deschutes and Yakima rivers.
The 2009 URB return "should be considerably greater than 2008…," according to the outlook.
A poor return of Bonneville Pool Hatchery jacks this year has prompted an estimate of a poor adult return in 2009. The run "may be half the 2008 return," which totaled about 86,200 fish. BPH stock are tule fall chinook originating, for the most part, from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's Spring Creek National Fish Hatchery.
The Mid-Columbia bright fall chinook return in 2009 is expected to be similar to this year's run of about 56,600.
The Lower River Hatchery return is expected to be improved over the past three years. The 2008 run totaled about 55,900. The 2009 Lower River Wild fall chinook run "may be slightly improved over 2008 but still below average," the outlook says.
A more detailed fall chinook forecast will be produced in the coming months, according to the WDFW's Cindy LeFleur.
The 2008 spring chinook jack count at Bonneville was one of the highest ever. The total was 22,352 through June 15. That compares to a 10-year average of 9,966 for 3-year-old upriver spring chinook.
The upriver spring chinook forecast includes 262,500 4-year-old and 36,400 5-year-old fish.
